Hello, friends and neighbors! I’m writing these words on the morning of Saturday December 9th. Tomorrow, I will attend my first in-person meeting of the Boston Society of Film Critics, where we’ll be voting on our annual awards. This is my third year as a member of the group, and while two years ago, I attended the meeting via Zoom, last year I couldn’t make it at all. Thus, I’m fairly excited to be (to coin a term) in the room where it happens, and as I recall from two years ago, a lot can change in the heat of the moment.

To briefly explain the voting rules: for each category, we vote on one winner. If a consensus has formed–great! We’re on to the next category. If it doesn’t come together that quickly (and it usually doesn’t) we proceed to another round in which we present three ranked picks. This is where things get strategic. By now, it starts becoming clear which picks have some juice, and which ones aren’t going to gather steam, so it’s time for some on-the-fly rearranging. These votes end up being the ones that actually decide the winner, and I know that two years ago, my second round votes weren’t always what I expected going in.

So today, I’m going to present two things: what I thought my second (and third) round votes would look like, and what they actually did look like. I’m not going to reveal all the machinations and minor melodramas of the BSFC meeting, but I’ll let you know what was going on in my calculations over the course of what promises (remember, I’m still here in the past) to be a very long day.

So without further ado, I present: What I Thought Would Happen, and What Actually Did.

Best Original Score

What I Thought Would Happen

Hi, these sections are still being written on Saturday, December 9th. Here’s what I’m thinking:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. May December
3. The Boy and the Heron

This is the first category of the day, and one I feel strongly about! We’re each granted 30 seconds at one point in the day to stop the proceedings and make the case for our preferred winner. This can often be very effective in swaying the vote, and I intend to use my platform this year to stump for Robbie Robertson’s work in Killers of the Flower Moon. As a big fan of the Band, I want to see Robbie win for, sadly, his final collaboration with Scorsese. I’ve been hard on Robbie over the years, including at this very newsletter, but I want to represent the Band, and I do think the work is extraordinary, even more so than the idiosyncratic brilliance of May December’s stings, and the grandeur of The Boy and the Heron.

What Actually Happened

OK, these sections are being written on the night of December 10th, just after my return from an eight-hour voting day. Here’s the scoop:

I did, indeed, use my 30 seconds to stump for Robbie–but, making things extra interesting, someone else used their 30 seconds on this category as well, stumping for Mica Levi for The Zone of Interest. Another totally worthy candidate! I hoped Robbie might take it in the first round, but it didn’t go that way, so my second round votes ended up being for:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. The Zone of Interest
3. The Boy and the Heron

Now at this point in the day, I was still feeling generous of spirit, and wanted the karmic goodwill I might accrue from voting against my own interests. In the heat of the moment, I even blanked on May December and left it off entirely.

And the Winner Was…

Robbie Robertson for Killers of the Flower Moon! We did it! Pop the champagne, and let’s ride the Robbie train all the way to Oscar night.

Best Editing

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Oppenheimer
3. Enys Men

Two pretty consensus (and pretty easy) picks, plus a curveball. Right now, in some categories, I’m saving my third slot for something I’m passionate about and want to represent in the room–what’s one vote to throw away when I know a vote went to the hazy nightmare of Enys Men? Still I’m happy to throw three points to Thelma; that movie moves like a shark.

What Actually Happened

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Oppenheimer
3. Enys Men

By the time of the second round, it was clear that my top two choices had ample support, so there was no reason to change things around–and I did want to keep Enys Men in play, if only for my own amusement.

And the Winner Was…

Thelma Schoonmaker for Killers of the Flower Moon! A deserving win, as I’ve already established. At this point, the Twitter crowd began grumbling about an obvious Killers of the Flower Moon sweep brewing. If only they knew!

Best Cinematography

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Godland
2. Fremont
3. Poor Things

Now things get a little more interesting–I’d love it if Godland and Fremont pick up some support, but I’m not sure. Both have gotten solid buzz in the group email threads, but there’s a silent majority that doesn’t email, so there’s no way to predict what’s actually got wide support. I’d love to see Godland at least pick up a few votes, though–it’s not the flashiest movie of the year, but every frame is composed with such immense care, and it features some of the most stunning images of the natural world I’ve seen in some time. Spare a thought for the stark lushness of Fremont, too, as well as the maximalist overload of Poor Things.

What Actually Happened

1. Godland
2. Poor Things
3. Asteroid City

I was pleased to find Godland accruing a lot of support, so there was no reason to throw it away. Poor Things leapt a slot after it became clear there was support there, and I slotted in Asteroid City after clocking some support on the first round. Sorry, Fremont–you weren’t destined for a big win today, sadly.

And the Winner Was…

Jonathan Ricquebourg for The Taste of Things! Not a movie I loved, or even liked in particular, and while I can admire the craft in the cinematography, I’ll admit to being mildly baffled by this win! I guess I’ve just never been one of those people driven to ecstasy by the sight of food being prepared on screen. Poor Things and Asteroid City both ended up as runners-up, which is great, but Godland was seemingly too beautiful for this world.

Best Animated Film

What I Thought Would Happen

1. The Boy and the Heron
2. Suzume
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Now look, this should really be an open-and-shut case, right? It’s a new Miyazaki, duh. This one should be over in one round. But here’s the thing: I have no idea how many people have actually watched it. The screening was at 2:00 the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, so attendance was sparse at best, and then GKids didn’t send a disc. So basically, any BSFC members who actually see this movie have to be watching their emails closely, and I know I lose track of screener links easily. So man, I hope The Boy and the Heron wins, but there’s noisy support in the email threads for two titles: Robot Dreams and TMNT: Mutant Mayhem. I was unimpressed by Robot Dreams, so it’s not on the ballot. Meanwhile, I found Suzume–the new one from the director of Your Name and Weathering With You, neither of which I’ve seen–to be a really pleasant surprise, epic and odd and emotional and original. Then there’s the turtles, and I do have to give it up for that movie; I consider it easily the pop cartoon of the year (you’ll note a lack of Spider-Man on this ballot), but I don’t necessarily consider it worthy of an award. Is that snobbish? That’s probably snobbish. But that’s what keeps the turtles in third place behind a movie I (to be very honest) don’t love in particular, but one that does strike me as worthier.

What Actually Happened

1. The Boy and the Heron
2. Suzume
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

This was a tight first round with a lot of impassioned feelings being thrown around! But I saw no reason to shake up my ballot, even as it became clear Suzume was nowhere near the radar.

And the Winner Was…

The Boy and the Heron! Thank goodness! The turtles had a remarkably strong showing, though, and God bless ‘em. I also enjoyed seeing the director of TMNT respond to the Miyazaki win in the classiest manner possible on Twitter: ”No shame in losing to the GOAT.” Sounds about right.

Best Documentary

What I Thought Would Happen

1. A Still Small Voice
2. Geographies of Solitude
3. Kokomo City

Now this has been a hotly contested category in the email threads, but again, no idea how that will spill over into voting. I haven’t seen a lot of support for A Still Small Voice, the fly-on-the-wall doc about hospital chaplains in training, but the arc of that movie’s central relationship was as satisfying as that of any narrative feature I saw this year. Geographies of Solitude (about a naturalist working on Sable Island–basically Enys Men but not horror) has email buzz, and it deserves it, but it’s a strange little movie that doesn’t seem like the kind of thing that would pick up a lot of attention. Then there’s Kokomo City, a gorgeously stylized portrait of Black trans sex workers, which I could see running away with it based on the fact that I see it mentioned online outside of email threads. But we’ll see!

What Actually Happened

1. A Still Small Voice
2. Geographies of Solitude
3. Kokomo City

After a completely chaotic first round, I saw no reason to shake things up. But the second round was no less chaotic, leading to the first third round of the day! My third ballot read:

1. Geographies of Solitude
2. Kokomo City
3. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

At this point, it was clear that, somewhat against the odds, Geographies of Solitude was accruing support. I decided it was time to send A Still Small Voice out to pasture, but that left a third slot–and, after a brief between-rounds conversation with my neighbor reminded me what I good time I had with The Eras Tour, I decided to represent it. Why not?

And the Winner Was…

Geographies of Solitude! What an upset! Frederick Wiseman was in the mix this year and still we give it to the small, beautiful thing that most people will probably never bother looking up on Letterboxd. But you should! What a picture!

Best New Filmmaker

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Kyle Edward Ball (Skinamarink)
2. A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One)
3. The Philippou Brothers (Talk to Me)

Now this category has not gotten a lot of discussion in the email threads, so it seems to me it could go any number of directions, including being a long deliberation. I know my votes feel a little like shots in the dark, and I may completely rewrite my ballot once I hear what others are thinking. For now, though: boy, Skinamarink is a real achievement, isn’t it? How can you watch that, even if you don’t like it, and not wonder what else that guy has up his sleeve? Then there’s A Thousand And One, which boasts really impressive craft and performances (Teyana Taylor was on my Best Actress ballot for a while) even if I think it gets lost in melodramatics a bit by the end. And finally we have Talk to Me, a gnarly Aussie horror made with a confidence (and high production value) that definitely doesn’t indicate a first feature. I didn’t love the movie, but I definitely respect it.

What Actually Happened

1. Kyle Edward Ball (Skinamarink)
2. A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One)
3. The Philippou Brothers (Talk to Me)

I was delighted to hear another member spend their 30 seconds on Kyle Edward Ball, giving me a brief hope for a Skinamarink win. Rockwell had solid support as well, and while there was no support for Talk to Me, at this point I was halfway voting against a seemingly inevitable Past Lives win.

And the Winner Was…

The seemingly inevitable Celine Song for Past Lives! Another movie that just didn’t fully land for me, though this is hardly the place to get into that. It’s not that I don’t get this win, it’s just…Skinamarink! You only get one of those, like, ever, let alone in a typical year.

Best Original Screenplay

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Asteroid City
2. May December
3. Fremont

Spoiler alert: you’ll see this exact lineup again in Best Film. That’s how it generally works for me–screenplay aligns with picture because the two strike me as inextricable. This year, my favorite movies had original screenplays, so they’re my favorite original screenplays, too. Seems logical enough to me. But we’ll see which of these I throw under the bus in the interest of moving towards a consensus.

What Actually Happened

1. Asteroid City
2. May December
3. Fremont

Once again, a chaotic first round left the field open enough to vote my heart. And, again, we proceeded to a third round, at which point I went for:

1. May December
2. Asteroid City
3. The Holdovers

At this point, May December was gathering clear steam, but so was The Holdovers. In the interest of building consensus (a winner can only be called if it’s on more than half the ballots) I threw a vote towards The Holdovers, another movie I found completely fine but not one of the year’s crown jewels.

And the Winner Was…

David Hemingson for The Holdovers! I don’t feel strongly enough about that movie to be disappointed by this win. I accept it. I just don’t celebrate it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

What I Thought Would Happen

1. BlackBerry
2. Oppenheimer
3. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Now here things get a little more idiosyncratic, and it’s another round where I don’t necessarily feel great passion for my picks. I loved BlackBerry’s structure, as well as the comic touch that kept everything moving at a clip. Oppenheimer feels a little like an easy pick, but that movie had to strike a tricky balance in adapting its very dense source material, and it plays like a crowd-pleaser. Impressive adaptation! And then I’ll throw a courtesy vote to Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret—as with all of these, I haven’t read the source material, but the movie is lovely, and that comes down in large part to the script.

What Actually Happened

1. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
2. BlackBerry
3. Oppenheimer

A big shift after the first round! Margaret vaults from last to first purely based on the temperature of the room–I still had hopes for BlackBerry at that point, but I was also eyeing Oppenheimer to rise in a potential third round.

And, indeed, we went to a third round! At which point I shifted to:

1. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
2. Oppenheimer
3. Priscilla

Margaret still had momentum, so I held strong, but it was time to give up the ghost on BlackBerry. I’d heard Priscilla a few times, and didn’t mind adding to the count.

And the Winner Was…

Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest (adapted from the novel by Martin Amis)! Again, a movie I have some issues with, but we certainly can’t get into that here. A lot to like about it! The screenplay would not be chief on my list.

Best Supporting Actress

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. Rachel McAdams (Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret)
3. Adele Exarchopoulos (Passages)

If any acting award feels like a sure thing this season, it’s Randolph, and who am I to disagree? McAdams’s work is truly special, and I always love seeing Adele E. on my screen, but Randolph is fantastic.

What Actually Happened

Still feeling the Margaret fever that swept the previous round, I cast my first round vote for Rachel McAdams. What can I say? I was feeling bullish. But, and this only happened once all day, it was over in one round!

And the Winner Was…

Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers! You get no bonus points for predicting that one, but a very worthy win.

Best Supporting Actor

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Charles Melton (May December)
2. Glenn Howerton (Blackberry)
3. Gregg Turkington (Fremont)

You can pry my Charles Melton vote out of my cold dead hands. Nothing is changing that pick, he got dunked into my ballot the night I watched May December and the dunk shattered the backboard. What a performance! Then there’s Glenn, who I just have to respect for the “I’m from Waterloo…” delivery (I won’t spoil the rest of the line). And Gregg…look, if I have the chance to vote for Gregg, I’m taking it, OK? And he really is splendid in Fremont—we’ll let Gregg stand in for the whole wonderful cast.

What Actually Happened

Now this was an interesting one. One member used their 30 seconds to stump for Ryan Gosling as Ken in Barbie, and I have no idea where he was on the radar before that, but it became a tight race very quickly, and I found myself strategizing on how to try and hold off a potential Gosling win. No shade against that performance! I just really wanted Melton. Thus, round two was:

1. Charles Melton (May December)
2. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
3. Gregg Turkington (Fremont)

At this point, it seemed best to hold the line and see where the winds were blowing. But as we inevitably went into a third round, I went hard against Gosling, voting his competition across the board:

1. Charles Melton (May December)
2. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

And the Winner Was…

Ryan Gosling for Barbie! And y’know what, fine. I had a strong favorite here, but that’s a fun win, even if it set about half of Twitter’s hair on fire. Good.

Best Actress

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Natalie Portman (May December)
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Emma Stone (Poor Things)

It was a very tough call picking between Natalie and Julianne for May December, but ultimately I think it’s Natalie who does the heavier lifting of the two (if I could vote for a tie, though, I would). Then there’s Lily Gladstone, who’s probably the odds-on favorite for this category pretty much across the board this season. I’ll happily vote for her if that’s where we’re leaning, and I also wouldn’t mind voting for Emma Stone for a truly transformative performance as Frankenstein’s horny monster. This category is a rich one, and whoever we vote for, she’ll probably be worthy.

What Actually Happened

1. Natalie Portman (May December)
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Emma Stone (Poor Things)

I saw no reason to shake things up, even as it was clear early on that Gladstone had the juice. I suspected there would be time to shift her up if necessary–there was little in the way of clear runners up at the beginning.

And the Winner Was…

Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon! I’ll admit to maybe not quite seeing what everyone else is seeing in that performance, but I also acknowledge what a presence she is. I was hoping to squeeze in The Unknown Country, her other big movie of 2023, this season, but that wasn’t meant to be. Maybe on a rewatch I’ll realize how wrong I was to ever doubt this performance’s power. That’s probably what’ll happen.

Best Actor

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Jason Schwartzman (Asteroid City)
2. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
3. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario)

I don’t have a lot of faith that Jason is taking any majority here, but I have to hope—he plays two roles at once, sort of on top of each other, and it’s gorgeous. There’s momentum for Giamatti this season, and I wouldn’t mind adding to that snowball. And then there’s Cage in a movie I don’t really like, but you don’t always get the chance to vote for a weird, gutsy, weird Nic Cage performance, so I’ll take it if I can.

What Actually Happened

1. Jason Schwartzman (Asteroid City)
2. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
3. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Murphy had been nowhere near my ballot, but he had vocal support, so I was hoping to put him on the requisite 50% of ballots if possible. He was primed to rise on a prospective third round.

And the Winner Was…

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers! OK, I’ll allow it. Again, a movie that feels more low-key than attention-grabbing for my money, but we’re a Boston crowd voting for a Boston movie, I can’t be wholly surprised.

Best Ensemble Cast

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Asteroid City
2. The Iron Claw
3. Killers of the Flower Moon

Now this time I do feel like my pick could have a fighting chance—I’ve already sent an impassioned email to that effect and I saw some agreement elsewhere in the thread. I really hope we give this one to Asteroid City, and while there’s been some support for The Iron Claw, I don’t think enough people have seen it (we didn’t get a disc for that one, and had to hassle A24 for a link if we really wanted to see it), so there’s not necessarily a real point in voting for it, but it’s a solid pick, so I’ll nod at it. Then there’s the Killers, and that’s just a real showcase for a sprawling ensemble of both stars and less recognizable faces. Everyone’s working together in that movie—the definition of ensemble acting, and it would be a solid winner if we go that way.

What Actually Happened

1. Asteroid City
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer

Look folks, I was dead wrong about The Iron Claw. The support was there, and I panicked. I really wanted this one for Asteroid City–its last best shot at an award–so I knocked off The Iron Claw in favor of Oppenheimer, which had been sitting in the fourth slot. But this one went to a third round as well, at which point things shifted to:

1. Asteroid City
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon

The Iron Claw was still holding on, so I kept playing the odds and shifted Oppenheimer up after hearing support gather. I’m not totally sure why I went from hoping to throw the movie two points to throwing it under the bus, but it’s all about what a threat it represented to Wes. I figured at this point that Oppenheimer was likely taking it, and I could settle for that.

And the Winner Was…

Oppenheimer! I can settle for that.

Best Director

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Todd Haynes (May December)
2. Wes Anderson (Asteroid City)
3. Babak Jalali (Fremont)

Once again this lineup resembles my Best Film list but this time I’ve made a flip—Todd over Wes. I think the tonal balancing act of May December, plus what he was able to draw out of the performers, is worth acknowledging with three whole points. I think Wes has a better chance, though, if only because of the Netflix Roald Dahl shorts, which I know at least one member is hoping to roll into a prospective Wes win. Wouldn’t that be fun! But I’d probably bet on Nolan or Scorsese here, just going off awards season odds. I’ll vote for Fremont again, though. Fremont forever.

What Actually Happened

1. Wes Anderson (Asteroid City)
2. Todd Haynes (May December)
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

While I cast my first-round vote for Haynes, by the time things got serious, I had come around to hoping for that bundled Anderson win that would include the Roald Dahl shorts. By this point, I’d also gotten a little tired of pushing the Fremont ball uphill. I could get excited about a Marty win, I figured.

And the Winner Was…

Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest! Wow, I wasn’t even paying attention and Glazer swooped in to take the whole thing. Good for him, hell of a filmmaker, even if I’m mixed on this one.

Best Film

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Asteroid City
2. May December
3. Fremont

I’ve covered two of these movies at this newsletter already. Let’s get to the good stuff.

The Deal With This Category

So Best Film actually goes second-to-last, because if it goes to a non-English language movie, we proceed to then vote for a Best English Language Film. This is a controversial rule, as you can perhaps guess, but we won’t get into that here.

What Actually Happened

1. Asteroid City
2. May December
3. Fremont

Look, I’m not going to start shifting the plates on Best Film until I have to. That’s for a third round. Which we went to! At that point, some big shifts happened:

1. May December
2. Poor Things
3. The Holdovers

By this point, we’d been going for more than seven hours, so my recollections on my thinking are a bit hazy. I know I was hoping to hold off a potential Zone of Interest or Anatomy of a Fall win, two movies I can respect but not love. Poor Things and The Holdovers had clear support, I would have been happy with either, and so onto the ballot they went.

And The Winner Was…

The Holdovers!

[heavy sigh]

Which is fine. It’s fine. That movie is fine. I wish I’d been listening harder as the votes were counted, because I struggle to believe it was the number one pick for a great number of people–I suspect this one might have ridden the middle of the ballot all the way to the big win. But that’s just a suspicion.

Best Non-English Language/English Language Film

What I Thought Would Happen

1. Fallen Leaves
2. Afire
3. The Boy and the Heron

OK, as I write this from the past, I’m just presuming we go English language for Best Film this time. If not, this whole ballot is out the window. Which would be too bad, because all three of these movies are in my Top 10–Fallen Leaves is a wry slice of life that got straight to my heart; Afire is beautifully eerie, and feels somehow mythic despite being basically a comedy of manners. I want to vote for these movies! But we’ll see what happens.

What Actually Happened

Yup, for the first time since I joined the group, we actually closed out with Best Non-English Language. And I went with:

1. The Zone of Interest
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Fallen Leaves

Yes, I cast three votes for a movie I have issues with. But I saw no reason to prolong the inevitable: this was going to either The Zone of Interest or Anatomy of a Fall. I certainly know where my allegiances lie in that debate–Team Glazer all the way.

And the Winner Was…

The Zone of Interest!

I guess I’m happy with that win as a lover of the medium, if not a lover of the movie. It’s a strange, gutsy, singularly unnerving piece of work, and I could quibble with it, but it’s bedtime. Today was a blast–I spent the bulk of a Sunday putting my head together with a lot of interesting people with fascinatingly varied tastes. It was a pleasure and a privilege. Can’t wait to do it again in 2024.